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Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) #3290 04/15/2025 02:16 PM
Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA chuck OP enthusiast
OP chuck enthusiast Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA	I got this one wrong. Another "Question of the Day" from Just Facts Daily Quote At the current U.S. murder rate, what is the average lifetime risk of being murdered? 1. About 1 in 20,000 2. About 1 in 2,000 3. About 1 in 200 Click below for answer. Correct Answer 3. About 1 in 200 Correct Answer Rate 15% If the U.S. murder rate remains at the current level, one in every 200 people in the nation will ultimately be murdered. This fact is so shocking that some people have refused to believe it, but the methodology to compute it was developed by a licensed actuary, double-checked by a Ph.D. mathematician, and triple-checked by a Ph.D. biostatistician. Per the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Annual victimization rates alone do not convey the full impact of crime as it affects people. No one would express his or her concern by saying, ‘I am terribly afraid of being mugged between January and December of this year.’ People are worried about the possibility that at some time in their lives they will be robbed or raped or assaulted, or their homes will be burglarized.” Documentation: Lifetime Risk of Murder

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) chuck #3291 04/15/2025 02:37 PM
Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28 Fahrenheit451 addict
Fahrenheit451 addict Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28	People refuse to believe it because it in nowhere near true....Not even in the ballpark... The murder rate in the United States was 6.3 homicides per 100,000 people in 2022. This is a decrease from 6.81 per 100,000 in 2021. The homicide rate increased from 2019 to 2020 by 30%, the largest single-year increase since 1960, according to the Council on Criminal Justice. In 2022, the US homicide rate was still higher than at any other point in the 21st century but remained below the peaks of the 1980s and early 1990s, according to USAFacts. Just like your "facts" about Israel... You have been debunked again..

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) Fahrenheit451 #3292 04/15/2025 09:51 PM
Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA chuck OP enthusiast
OP chuck enthusiast Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA	Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 People refuse to believe it because it in nowhere near true....Not even in the ballpark... The murder rate in the United States was 6.3 homicides per 100,000 people in 2022. I'm not sure what you are talking about and I don't believe you do either. The numbers from differing sources vary and the years used is different--2022 vs 2023. For argument's sake, I'll use your numbers (6.3 yearly homicides per 100,000) and assume the average life expectancy in the US is 75 years (slightly on the low side). 6.3 * 75 = 472.5 lifetime homicides per 100,000. 100,000/472.5 ≈ 212 risk of being murdered or ABOUT 1 in 200 (answer #3). Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 Just like your "facts" about Israel... You have been debunked again.. And just like my facts about Israel, you falsely claim to debunk them.

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) chuck #3293 04/15/2025 11:15 PM
Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28 Fahrenheit451 addict
Fahrenheit451 addict Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28	The number of murders is about 6 per 100,000 people from the official crime index database.... You are claiming the murder rate is 1 per every 200 people.... These numbers don't jive... And in 2023 the murder rate dropped from 6.2 per 100,00 to 5.7 per 100,000 according to the FBI.... https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/murders-us-116-fbi/story?id=113927545 Your 1 murder per every 200 people living in the U.S. must be Israeli math.. By my calculations that equals 6 murders per 1200 people... So the FBI figures of 5.7 per 100,000 must be false advertising I guess. Last edited by Fahrenheit451; 04/15/2025 11:51 PM.

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) Fahrenheit451 #3294 04/16/2025 12:59 AM
Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA chuck OP enthusiast
OP chuck enthusiast Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA	Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 ...in 2023 the murder rate dropped from 6.2 per 100,00 to 5.7 per 100,000 according to the FBI.... As I stated in my previous post, these kinds of numbers vary depending on the source. I also said that I would use the numbers or your source so as not to confuse the issue. Your new source indicates 5.7 murders per year per 100,000 people. That changes my result to 1 in 234 which is still about 200 within the precision of the question. Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 Your 1 murder per every 200 people living in the U.S. must be Israeli math.. By my calculations that equals 6 murders per 1200 people... Very good. 6*200 is indeed 1200. Like a computer--garbage in, garbage out. Think about what is being calculated. Re-read my previous post. And for God's sake, unless you claim to be me, don't show this thread to any of your potential clients.

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) chuck #3295 04/16/2025 02:34 AM
Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28 Fahrenheit451 addict
Fahrenheit451 addict Joined: Mar 2024 Posts: 528 Likes: 28	You are totally ridiculous for making these types of posts... "Lifetime risks of being murdered" You should work for the State Department (or Trump Organization) because they are all liars and deceivers too.... But the actual number of people being murdered in the United States is anywhere between 5.7 -6.5 per 100,000 people. Give or take a few percentage points either way in any given year..... But you want to add up their chances of being murdered over a 72-75 year lifespan... I will bet that over the same lifespan, the chances for a person dying by any means are probably 85% or more.... Since the average lifespan for men is 74.8 years and women was 80.2 years... Are you approaching your expiration date or have you exceeded it? Last edited by Fahrenheit451; 04/16/2025 02:40 AM.

Re: Lifetime Risk of Murder (QotD) Fahrenheit451 #3296 04/16/2025 04:20 AM
Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA chuck OP enthusiast
OP chuck enthusiast Joined: Jun 2019 Posts: 276 Likes: 8 Central Coast CA	Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 ...the actual number of people being murdered in the United States is anywhere between 5.7 -6.5 per 100,000 people. Give or take a few percentage points either way in any given year..... You do realize that figure is for ONE year, don't you? Originally Posted by Fahrenheit451 But you want to add up their chances of being murdered over a 72-75 year lifespan... Exactly. I used 75 years. I answered the Question of the Day. You didn't understand it, you challenged it, and you were too obstinate to take a second look when your error was pointed out. For your convenience, this is the question (emphasis mine): "At the current U.S. murder rate, what is the average LIFETIME risk of being murdered?" Last edited by chuck; 04/16/2025 04:21 AM.

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